By CMR of Xiamen University
The learn group makes the next forecasts: First, in 2013 China’s development will stay strong and achieve 8.23 percentage, a rise of 0.43 percent issues in comparison with the former yr; even supposing there's inflation strain as a result of international financial easing, critical inflation in China is not likely to ensue, and the patron cost index (CPI) will stay at 3.11 percentage. moment, the expansion of imports and exports will rebound, however the exchange surplus will lessen additional. eventually, the percentage of funding in GDP will stay excessive within the brief time period as urbanization promotes the expansion of mounted resources funding, although greater in step with capita earning will lead to excessive and regular consumption.
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Additional info for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2013
Third, this report includes the transfer of exempting a part of fiscal revenue to the low-income residents in urban and rural areas through structural tax cuts, which hypothetically can be down by appropriately controlling the growth of the government 38 5 Comments and Discussions fiscal revenue. However, I think we should also pay attention to the aspect of the administrative costs of the governments, as well as related fiscal reforms such as optimization of the fiscal expenditure structure and increase of government transfer payment for social welfare spending.
Specially, such reform of tax system could solve the fundamental problems of government which were not solved in the taxation reform of 1994 especially the allocation of government revenue between the central and local government. 3. I think it needs supporting policies for the transformation of fiscal system. Such policies may be as follows: First, the government should reduce the nominal tax rate of the existing turnover taxes. If the existing tax burden did not decline, once the government increased the consumption taxes similar as Europe and the United States do, it would not make the enterprise more profitable and eventually transfer the tax burden to the consumers.
The research team assumes that the decreased part of the government fiscal revenue would be only transferred to the low-income residents. 2 Policy Simulation in the Second Scenario 25 consisted of the lowest-income and low-income groups, that each group accounts for 20 % of the rural population. 0 Yuan respectively from 2010 to 2012 on average. 0 Yuan. 12 %. 05 percentage points compared to the results from the first scenario. 25 percentage points than that in the first scenario. As a result, the share of resident consumption in GDP would further increase, while the proportion of capital formation and net exports in GDP would decline.