By Gwyn Harries-Jenkins
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Additional info for Armed Forces and the Welfare Societies: Challenges in the 1980s: Britain, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden and the United States
For the UK, there was no support for the hypothesis that the abolition of conscription had affected total defence expenditure. 86 where D = level of UK defence spending, from Statement on Defence Estimates; C = conscription dummy with 1 = 1963 onwards and 0 elsewhere; alternative dummies were estimated. 3. 7). This could be evidence that the elasticity of substitution of capital for labour is less than unity. Alternatively it might indicate that military commanders have an employment contract which provides little inducement to search for the most efficient combination of manpower and weapons.
14 shows that there will be a major decline in the number of 15-19 year olds between 1986-96. If current force levels are to be maintained, it will be necessary to recruit a much higher proportion of the age group, or to attract and retain a greater number of older persons: this is likely to require an increase in the relative pay of servicemen. 46 Alternatively, if current shares of the age group are maintained, demographic trends suggest a force level in the mid-1990s of some 255 000. Thus, both demographic and economic factors indicate that between 1985 and 1996 British defence policy will be confronted with some difficult and revealing choices.
It affected the general level of taxation and absorbed an 'undue' proportion of qualified scientists and engineers, as well as large forces overseas with their direct balance of payments effects. There were also international equity considerations, with references to 16 Armed Forces and the Welfare Societies the UK's bearing a disproportionately large share of the total burden of Western defence. 11 Policy-makers assumed that resources were mobile. They predicted that the 1957 defence cuts would release skilled labour, especially scarce scientists and technicians, for employment in civil industry with associated favourable effects on capital investment and exportsY The 1957 Defence Review also reflected major changes in military technology and strategy.